Are you eyeing acreage around Carver and wondering what it could become in the next decade? You are not alone. With a clear comprehensive plan, fresh utility capacity, and steady annexation activity, the area is drawing interest from land buyers and small developers. In this guide, you will learn how Carver plans to grow, the fee numbers that shape your pro forma, the environmental constraints to check first, and a practical path from idea to entitlement. Let’s dive in.
Big picture: where Carver plans to grow
Carver’s 2040 Comprehensive Plan outlines an Ultimate Growth Boundary and an orderly annexation area with Dahlgren Township. The plan forecasts a population of about 15,500 by 2040 and expects new urban development to connect to municipal utilities. You should plan for rezoning after annexation when utilities and a development plan are in place. Review the City’s future land use categories and target densities in the plan to set your baseline assumptions (Carver 2040 Land Use chapter).
Use these density ranges as the starting point in your yield test:
- Low density: 3–5 units per acre
- Medium density: 5–12 units per acre
- High density: 12–36 units per acre
- Mixed use with residential: about 8–36 units per acre with roughly 70 percent residential
Annexation is active. In 2025 the City approved a roughly 114‑acre annexation with an initial concept for about 255 homes in Phase 1, signaling near‑term conversion along the growth edge. Always verify current status on the City’s meeting agendas, and review public reports on recent actions like this one (local annexation coverage). If a parcel sits in the orderly annexation area, check whether any per‑acre reimbursement applies. Court records referencing a local dispute note a $500 per acre reimbursement term in the OAA context, which can affect your residual land value (Minnesota Court of Appeals record).
Utility capacity and fees that move the model
City fees and regional charges are deterministic line items. Build them into your per‑lot and per‑acre costs before you look at roads or grading. From the City’s 2025 fee schedule, examples include:
- Water connection charge: $9,725 per REU
- Water trunk charge: $1,800 per REU
- Sewer connection charge, local: $1,070 per REU
- MCES regional fee: $2,485 per REU
- Trunk sanitary sewer fee: $1,500 per REU
- Stormwater Area Charge at final plat, per developable acre: Low $3,827, Medium $4,581, High $6,508, Commercial $6,892
Pull current numbers and timing from the City before you finalize offers (2025 City Fee Schedule).
On the capacity side, Carver completed a water treatment plant expansion that added roughly 1.5 MGD and became substantially operational in 2022. This supports growth but you still need to confirm available trunk capacity to your target parcel and the schedule for any system extensions (Water Treatment Facility project overview). Sanitary sewer extensions often require MCES and MPCA review in the metro area, so plan lead time for permits on larger runs (MPCA sanitary sewer extensions process).
Access and corridor upgrades to factor in
Recent improvements along Jonathan Carver Parkway and County Highway 11 changed access, safety, and frontage economics. Roundabouts and a pedestrian underpass now shape traffic flow. When you model a site, consider whether turn lanes, intersection work, or frontage improvements could be required at platting or assessed to your project (Jonathan Carver Parkway improvements).
Environmental and site constraints to underwrite early
Flood protection near Historic Downtown is an active risk factor. Carver’s levee is not currently certified by USACE or FEMA, and the City estimates about $12 million to reinstate certification. Non‑certification can affect insurance, elevation design, and allowable uses near the river, so treat levee status as a binary variable in your feasibility test (City levee certification page).
Wetlands and watershed rules also matter. Carver Creek and the Minnesota River corridor include mapped wetlands and impaired segments. Wetland delineations and mitigation can add months and may require off‑site credits. Budget both time and cost for this work (Lower Minnesota River Watershed resources on Carver Creek).
Topography plays a role too. The comprehensive plan flags 30 percent or greater slopes and protected open space as non‑developable. Expect reduced net acres and possible added earthwork on bluff or hillside sites. Confirm with a geotech and topo survey before you price roads and lots (Carver 2040 Land Use chapter).
Valuation 101 for Carver acreage
You have three common lenses to triangulate land value:
- Sales comparison. Use recent raw land sales in the submarket and compare on a per‑acre or per‑buildable‑unit basis.
- Subdivision or anticipated use method. Estimate the gross development value of finished lots or homes, subtract all costs and a developer profit, and see what remains for land.
- Residual land valuation. This is the developer’s approach to GDV minus costs minus required return equals land value. It is sensitive to small input changes, so run sensitivities on key variables and follow professional valuation guidance (RICS global valuation standards).
When you build a skeleton model for Carver, plug in density ranges from the plan, realistic lot counts, and an explicit line for public fees and stormwater charges from the City fee schedule. Then add site work, utilities, soft costs, finance, contingency, and a target developer return. Cross‑check the result against comps before you finalize a price.
Approval path and realistic timing
Most greenfield projects follow a predictable sequence: due diligence, pre‑application meeting with the City, concept or sketch plan, annexation if needed, preliminary plat and rezoning, final plat and public improvement plans, then construction and lot sales. Coordinate with the City, County, and any regional bodies such as MCES and MPCA along the way (Carver 2040 Land Use chapter).
Timing varies by site. If annexation and environmental review are in play, assume roughly 12 to 36 months before lot sales. For parcels already in the city with utilities nearby, you could see 6 to 18 months from initial application to buildable lots. If federal funds or special projects affect your area, expect added steps and notices, as seen in the levee planning effort (City levee project hub).
1031 strategies for land buyers
Section 1031 still allows you to defer gain on the sale of investment real property by acquiring like‑kind replacement real property that you hold for investment or business use. The two key deadlines are 45 days to identify replacement property and 180 days to complete the exchange. Use a qualified intermediary and speak with a tax professional early if you plan to roll proceeds into acreage that you will hold for long‑term appreciation.
Common local approaches include exchanging out of an improved rental or commercial asset into Carver‑area acreage you plan to hold and entitle over time. Reverse exchanges are possible but require more structure. Remember, 1031 helps with taxes. It does not shortcut annexation, utilities, or permits.
First steps on a specific parcel
Use a simple, repeatable checklist before you write an offer:
- Pull the City’s Future Land Use map to confirm the growth area, land use category, and overlays like floodplain and wetlands (2040 Land Use Map).
- Confirm city limits or orderly annexation area status with the planner and ask about rezoning path and timing (Carver 2040 Land Use chapter).
- Order title, a wetland delineation, and a preliminary geotech report.
- Build a residual model using the City’s fee schedule for water, sewer, trunk, and stormwater charges (2025 City Fee Schedule).
- Check available utility capacity and extension timing with City staff (Water Treatment Facility project overview).
- If the site is near the river or downtown, confirm current FEMA and levee status (City levee certification page).
If you want a local partner that understands both neighborhood sales and complex land work, our team can help you price, plan, and execute with confidence. Talk with a local expert at Chestnut Realty.
FAQs
What densities can you assume for Carver acreage?
- Carver’s plan guides low at 3–5 units per acre, medium at 5–12, high at 12–36, and mixed use with residential at about 8–36 with roughly 70 percent residential.
How do City fees affect per‑lot costs in Carver?
- Budget for water and sewer connection and trunk charges per REU, the MCES regional fee, and stormwater area charges per developable acre as listed in the City’s fee schedule.
How does the levee status impact downtown‑area development?
- The city levee protecting Historic Downtown is not certified, which can affect insurance, elevations, and allowable uses near the river until certification work is funded and completed.
What timeline should you expect from annexation to lots?
- With annexation and environmental steps, plan about 12 to 36 months; if already in city limits with nearby utilities, some projects compress to roughly 6 to 18 months.
Can you use a 1031 exchange to buy Carver‑area acreage?
- Yes, if you are exchanging investment real property and hold the replacement acreage for investment, while meeting the 45‑day identification and 180‑day closing deadlines.
